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Extra info for Ageing And Employment Policies ( Vieillissement et Politiques de L'Emploi): United Kingdom (Ageing and Employment Policies)
However, these projections do not take into account any trend increase in the average cost of health care. 5. Some argue that future growth in labour productivity may outweigh the negative impact on economic growth of any reductions in labour supply. See, for example, Young (2002). 6. Volterra Consulting (2004). 3. Labour force growth scenarios for the United Kingdom, a 1950-2050 Millions Historical Constant Maximum 38 36 34 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 a) The constant scenario assumes that current participation rates by five-year age group and gender remain constant over the period to 2050.
B. Employment trends of older workers Employment rates of older males have increased modestly but… Achieving higher rates of labour force participation among older people is only part of the battle in coping with population ageing: the extent to which active people are actually employed will play a fundamental role. Since 1992, the employment rates of women aged 50-54 and 55-59 have increased nearly 8 and 9 percentage points, respectively, to reach 73% and 61% in 2003, respectively. Even for women aged 60-64 who have reached the State Pension age, the employment rate has increased nearly 5 percentage points to 27% in 2003, in line with the OECD average.
For women, the evidence is mixed with the share of women aged 55-59 wanting work increasing 2 percentage points while the share of those aged 50-54 wanting work declined by over 2 percentage points over the same period. 6. 0 Source: UK Labour Force Survey. 8). 7 demonstrates that among inactive individuals who would like to work, long-term illness appears to be the predominant factor in explaining why older men are not looking for work – nearly 75% for men aged 50 to 59. For older women in the same age category, long-term illness is also an important factor – 53% for women aged 50-54 and 59% for women aged 55-59.